Thursday, 23 October 2014

Oh Masters my Masters

I was going to write a blog on Malifolk 3, but it was a bit of a nightmare result for me and I don't particularly want to re-cap on it (very good fum and well run though)

So after a sub-par performance I am now sweating on a masters place, as are other. With the GT coming up and alot of points being on offer I thought I would have a look at the runners and riders in the mix for masters qualification and try to see what is needed at the GT

Looking at the rankings I would say everyone above 10th if safe and anyone below 25th is completely out of it.

Here are the points available at the GT (if I've done my maths right!)

Placings
1st – 100
2nd – 98.53
3rd – 97.06
4th – 95.59
5th – 94.12
6th – 92.65
7th – 91.18
8th – 89.71
9th – 88.24
10th – 86.77
11th – 85.3
12th – 83.83
13th – 82.36
14th – 80.89
15th – 79.42
16th – 77.95
17th – 76.48
18th – 75.01
19th – 73.54
20th – 72.07

And here are the rankings as they stand, the 3rd column is the points they will potentially be replacing with their GT result and the 4th is their next tournament. I am expecting the Winner of the GT to already have gained Masters qualification so have bolded down to 15th as qualifying positions.

Rank      Name                                    Points                   Replace         Next

10th        John Warton                       355.95                   82.5                 None
11th        Luke Cocksedge                   349.61                   77.78               GT
12th        Maria Wieland                     346.46                   70                    M'ween
13th        David Golden                      345.33                   80                     None
14th        Ben Harris                           342.29                   82.14                GT
15th        Graham Bursnell                 341.61                   80                    GT
16th         Connor Barker                    340.48                   80                     GT
17th         Joe Wood                           339.45                   76.67                GT
18th         Josh Leak                           337.38                   75                     GT
19th         Martin Wodehouse             337.12                   59.82                 GT
20th         Scott Porter                        333.81                   60.71                 GT
21st         Josh Fletcher                     331.91                   69                      GT
22nd        Dave Hill                             320.38                   69.67                GT R
24th         Darren Longworth              313.83                   57.83                 None
25th         Dom Westerland                 311.7                     58.33                GT


Looking at this and the points on offer here is a little hypothesis of what people will need to do to qualify

John Wharton – Can’t improve

Luke Cocksedge - Needs to finish in top 15 to improve ranking, needs to finish in top 11 to move up, probably guaranteed a Masters place

Maria Wieland – Can’t improve at present, Malloween not enough player for rankings

David Golden – Can’t improve

Ben Harris – Needs to finish in top 13 to improve ranking, needs to finish in top 11 to move up, needs to finish in top 10 to overtake David and Maria

Graham Bursnell – Needs to finish in top 14 to improve ranking, needs to finish in top 14 to move up (if Ben doesn't improve ranking). Needs to finish 1 place above Ben to overtake him, needs to finish in top 12 to overtake David and top 11 to overtake Maria.

Connor Barker – Needs to finish in top 14 to improve ranking, needs to finish in top 13 to move up (and finish above Ben and Graham) Needs to finish top 11 to overtake David and top 10 for Maria

Joe Wood – Needs to finish in top 16 to improve ranking, needs to finish in top 15 to move into masters (provided Ben, Graham and Connor don’t improve score), Needs to finish top 12 to overtake David and Maria

Josh Leak – Needs to finish top 15 to gain masters qualification (if people above him don’t improve) top 12th/13th to overtake David and Maria

Martin Wodehouse – Needs to finish top 29 to get into Masters (if people above him don’t improve) and top 20 would almost guarantee a place, winning it could see him seeded for the masters!

Scott Porter – needs to finish top 20 to overtake David and 19 Maria, needs to finish 21st to overtake Graham (if he doesn't improve)

Josh Fletcher – 15th would see him into qualification if those above him don’t improve, top 10 would see him have a good chance but there are a lot of people above him who can improve

Dave Hill & Darren Longworth – probably can’t improve due to not attending GT

Dom Westerland – Needs to finish second and hope nobody else above him improves their rankings, a long shot (pardon the pun)

Now lets say that all the above players finish in the position they are currently ranked at the GT, here's how things would look.

10th Luke Cocksedge – 357.13
11th John Wharton - 355.95
12th Martin Wodehouse – 349.95
13th Maria Wieland – 346.46
14th David Golden – 345.33
15th Scott Porter – 345.17
16th Ben Harris – 342.29
17th Graham Bursnell – 341.61
18th Connor Barker – 340.48
19th Joe Wood – 339.45
20th Josh Leak – 337.38

So what does all this tell us? Well your guess is as good as mine but it looks like that (generally speaking) you will need to, at the very least, finish above your current ranking position to get a place at the masters and that Luke and Martin are probably safe already.

Then again 77.4% of statistics are complete bollocks! All I'm saying is I've already booked my ticket for Gunsmiths at TTN on the 30th just in case!


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