Monthly Market Musings

So, I thought I would start a monthly blog, reviewing any stock market trades and general thoughts on the market probably along with some general ramblings on unrelated topics and nonsense! Not particularly for anything else other than to give me a reference point where I can look back and think…what on Earth was I doing!

So, for me, a down month on the market losing a fairly hefty 5.24% of portfolio value leaving me at +32.22% calendar year to date, which is still pretty good.

Trades for June 2021

2/6 - Sold 20% of GAW holding at 12083 - Fast rise and looked to be at resistance.

2/6 - Sold 33% of SLP holding at 138 - Wanted to reduce over exposure to PGM market.

8/6 - Added back GAW at 11765 - Always the plan to add back if able, but fell further!

8/6 - Added to SRC (+33%) at 88 - Generally increasing weighting as was getting a bit light.

10/6 - Sold all SLP at 130 - Releasing cash to add to THS which looks better value.

10/6 - Increased THS at 135 - Fell recently so adding, also catch dividend.

16/6 - Sold all BOTB at 1925 - Poor trading outlook and unsure of further growth.

16/6 - Bought back 33% of SLP at 127 - Looking good value now, reduced position.             

 

This activity leaves my concentrated portfolio positioned by weighting as follows

 

THS, GAW, SDI, SRC, BEG, SLP, PXC, SML

So only 8 shares held at the minute! 

I do like to run a concentrated portfolio but this is probably a little too few for my liking. I recently got rid of a few holdings and just haven't found anything to replace them with so have just been adding to existing positions. But this does increase volatility in both directions, and to the downside this month with my overweight position in Tharisa Mining (THS) shedding nearly 20% presumably on weakening Rhodium prices and Best Of The Best (BOTB) spooking the market with a pseudo profit warning in with their Final Results issued mid-month.

I plan to do a review of THS and SLP, similar but different Platinum Group Metals (PGM) producers, probably next month but now I want to focus on why BOTB left the portfolio.

Best Bet? (Sorry, I mean game of skill)

BOTB is a stock quite popular with private investors. For those not familiar it offers on line spot the ball games giving customers a chance to win pretty tasty prizes, usually high end cars. They started off being that weird company that hung around at airports and train stations with snappily dressed men pestering you to buy a ticket to win a car, which was displayed on site. I usually went out of my way to avoid them! However BOTB transitioned to online only just at the right time as C19 hit. A pretty fortuitous / savvy management action saw their margins and return on capital skyrocket as their customers also increased dramatically. A perfect storm - outsized returns and fast growth coupled with massively improving margins – tasty! Especially tasty for those wise enough to buy early as the share price powered from £4 in early 2020 peaking at £35 a year later.

 

Unfortunately I didn’t buy it at £4. I looked at it around £8 after a good update but to be honest it wasn’t (and still isn’t) really my cup of tea as far as companies go. Basically it’s a gambling company although it sidesteps legislation by touting itself as selling participation in a ‘game of skill’, but to me it’s a gambling company, and I’m not too fond of gambling companies. The impressive metrics did however mean it remained on my radar even after it quickly jumped again to £18.

 

Following this fast rise to £18 the shares softened pretty dramatically for no particular reason and I was tempted in at £12.50 in December 2020 simply because there seemed to be no significant reason for the drop and everything still looked as was in terms of profitability. Would the growth slow when lockdown was released? Would the legislators come knocking? Who knows, but at £12.50 I thought it was probably worth a go.

 

Turned out to be a good decision as the shares popped back up. I took some off the table at £19, and obviously they kept going up as high as £35! And that’s where the problems with the share started to creep in.

 

The share price had momentum from increasing customers and great metrics and when I bought these were still in play despite the price weakness. Following my buy they issued another great update which propelled the share on again, but be in no doubt if this update had of been bad I’d have been out like a shot, and probably at a loss.

 

In February they closed their formal sale process after seeking bids to buy the company a while earlier, no problems there for me, the price of the company was now much higher so not surprising there wasn’t a deal reached, and besides the management had been doing a great job, why change?

 

Later in February was the first clue. They issued a trading statement that their growth was going to be ‘in line’ with forecasts, where they had previously been smashing them. Again, not a massive problem as they had only just issued an upgrade to their forecasts, but enough to stop the meteoric rise in its tracks.

 

Then, in March, they undertook a large secondary placing where the founders and major shareholders sold some of their holdings to the market. Unlike a fundraising and dilutive placing this is simply the case of the founders wanting to take some of their money out, could be for many reasons so not necessarily a problem, but an alert maybe. The placing was a pretty hefty discount to the closing price and (a derisory small amount) was offered to retail investors with respected Slater Holdings taking a largish chunk of the equity. I thought the placing price was pretty good value so tried to get some without success. As it turns out a blessing in disguise if it wasn’t for my later mistake.

 

Seems surprising to me how often company owners / senior management time their sales and this, it turns out, was no different. So instead of being seduced by the price and Slater taking a stake I probably should have put up an amber flag on the share.

 

In May there came another update confirming they are still ‘in line’ with their forecasts. The market didn’t seem to like it and, in hindsight, I should have sat still with this second amber flag. Instead I picked up some more shares as the priced dropped to that of the placing a month earlier. After all it was still trading on great metrics and making good money.

 

Then, on June the 16^th in with their financial results, came the statement that many holders were hoping to avoid. Nestled in with the very impressive results was the following statement.

 

‘However, in contrast to the summer 2020 period, we have experienced somewhat of a reduction in customer engagement since the last easing of lockdown restrictions on April 12, 2021..’

 

Crikey man, stop waffling on and tell us why you sold!

Essentially the above statement was a profit warning in my opinion. Management don’t state why they think this is, or what they plan to do about it but put out some flannel about flexible models, growth strategies and expecting it to get back to normal.

 

In this case management seem very competent, and may very well be able to get it back to normal, but why not tell us why you think it has slowed? Reading between the lines and around the subject there are possibilities that it’s down to lockdown ending, a change in search engine rankings and Apples IOS privacy update.

 

But quite frankly I don’t care. I bought the share for growth and the margins they were making, for whatever reason the story has changed, growth has slowed and chasing that growth again could affect margins, and that’s without the regulatory threat around the ‘game of skill’ element!

 

With the decision made before the market open I finally managed to get rid of my shares around 9am (its massively illiquid and I think a lot of people had the same idea as me) for a price of £19.25, an overall profit of around 40%. Obviously this could have been a profit of 250% if I’d have sold the lot at the top and not been sucked in to adding, but overall it’s a positive trade.

 

I’ll continue to watch from the side lines, and the shares may now have bottomed and in my opinion may move sideways until management can prove their mettle again.

 

But then again profit warnings can be like busses, you wait ages for one then three come at once! 

 

BOTB was a middling position to me, but it certainly contributed to that 5%+ monthly loss. If you run a very concentrated portfolio these things can certainly smack you in the chops! With great position sizing comes great chances of being kicked in nether regions.

 

Book of the Month

 

I’m hoping to blog monthly, and there’s always a good discussion on Twitter as to what finance/investing/other books to be reading, and I’ve read plenty of them so I thought I would do a book of the month, probably in some kind of order of complexity and what to read first. So here’s the first entry….

 

Rich Dad Poor Dad – Robert Kiyosaki

 

Firstly, this isn’t a book about investing, it’s a book about personal financial management, its not particularly well written, for a lot of people it will be very basic and, quite frankly, it has a dreadful title. So bad in fact that I didn’t read this book for ages because I really didn’t know what it was going to be about!

 

However it is probably the book that has had the most effect on how I think about money and how I organise my finances, it could be argued that it’s the book that changed my financial life!

 

It’s a quick read, pretty engaging and addresses some great principles around cash flow and assets. Even better (and I’m probably going to miss out on 2p by not putting an affiliate link to expensive multinational book seller in here), you can pick it up on well-known auction sites for next to nothing!

 

Off Topic Ramblings

 

Thank God there’s some sport on TV now, if I was forced to trawl through anymore crap on NetFlix I think it would be the end of me. Normally 30 minutes of flicking followed by watching something I’ve seen dozens of times before. When I finally do watch a new movie it’s generally terrible.

 

Someone on Twitter posted a billboard of the film selection on at the cinema in 1987 (if you could only watch one….) The choices were Lost Boys, Full Metal Jacket, Robocop and Predator. Today the highlight seems to be Fast and Furious 576.

 

We have a young man interning with us at work over the Summer and I got into a conversation about films with him, it went along these lines.

 

‘You’ve never seen Aliens, or Alien?, classics, you don’t know what you’re missing.’

‘I don’t like Sci-Fi’

‘Well, Alien is more sci-fi horror and Aliens is pretty much action in a sci-fi setting’

‘Oh, I like horror, sounds alright, what year was Aliens made?’

‘1986’

‘I don’t like old films’

 

I think I’m getting old, I’m pretty sure 1986 was only 10 or so years ago!

'Game Over Man!' - Hudson (Bill Paxton), Aliens, 1986

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anatomy of a trade – Games Workshop

This is a post about trading in shares, no financial advice is given or implied. I own shares in Games Workshop (LON GAW).

With Games Workshop Plc (GAW) seeming particularly volatile of late I thought I would have a look at my time as a shareholder of the company and see if I can map out any thoughts on the future.

Anyone who is familiar with GAW will know the companies propensity for releasing ‘brief’ or ‘strangely worded’ RNS releases, often at strange times of day, and sometimes even on a Friday!

So I also intend to try and see if there is anything that can be read into these releases, or if they simply use it as a mechanism to play with the Stock Market, almost giving a little insider edge to the gaming geeks that can read between the lines!

To the uninitiated GAW makes and sells plastic soldiers. In reality they have created a rich world full of IP developed over many years, they design table top wargames and sell the rules and figures to play these games through their own stores, their own website and through 3^rd parties in numerous territories worldwide. They also licence their IP, an area in which they seem keen to expand.

I used to collect and play GAW games so have some inside knowledge of the company, in fact if you scroll back through old blogs you’ll find wargaming rather than investing content! This fact that should have brought their shares to my attention earlier, but didn’t.

So lets begin by looking at the classic breakout of GAW shares that I didn’t get involved in!

Early Movement & Breakout

 

GAW was in the doldrums, the chart above shows a the end of a long period of sideways movement (which followed a fall in the share price). The first annotation shows what a lot of shares need to begin moving out of a base, a catalyst! The catalyst here was a change in CEO with Kevin Rountree being appointed in November 2014, taking charge in Jan 2015.

Then comes the point in 2016 when I should have begun taking notice of GAW (marked as industry knowledge on the chart). I had just started trading shares and was very green but I was still playing wargames at a local club. GAW had been a stale brand, still played by people, but almost begrudgingly. In early 2016 the buzz around GAW started to change, attitudes became more positive. Sometimes you don’t need to forensically analyse accounts to find shares to buy, you just need to look and listen. But I was more interested in resource stocks at the time!

If you missed the buzz, as most people would have done, you could have seen the trading updates. The shares didn’t react to the ‘slightly ahead’ update on 6/6/16, in fact they dropped 20% in tandem with most of the market on the Brexit leave vote. They then recovered as much of the market did.

If you were paying attention (and I know of some people who were paying attention) your interest should have been piqued by the 2^nd ‘trading ahead’ statement in October, quickly followed by a rise in volume and then a break through previous resistance on the chart at 600p when they issued a 3^rd consecutive ‘ahead’ statement.

This break on volume is an absolute classic sign of a share starting to move, it generally means that those with more influence that the likes of you and I are starting to buy.

We had a 2^nd break through weak resistance at just below 700p, this was your second bite of the cherry and a profit beat (something that becomes a pattern in the future) forcing a break through stronger resistance at 825p, again on good volume, then a back test of the 825p level giving you your 3^rd and 4^th bites of the cherry to get in early. We then had another good trading update, a brief pause before another update and we were off to the races with GAW.

In hindsight an absolute text book share price break out on good volume, with a catalyst from a new CEO and insider info from being in the hobby and hearing the buzz. And I missed the lot. By the time I started paying attention to GAW it had trebled from its lows of 400p and I presumed I has missed the boat.

However, I didn’t miss the boat completely, I just boarded late. GAW gave plenty of opportunities to get involved along the way. Partly, I believe, to do with the way it communicates with the market, which I will look at later.

2017 – 2020 Trading and Learning

The chart below shows GAW’s journey from the break out in early 2017 up to 2020, it is annotated with their trading updates and shows my entry and exit points.

 

Following the breakout in 2017 I sat on the side-lines as it delivered great trading update after great trading update, each leading to a jump in the price. GAW would announce a raised profit target based on their trading and then beat it when they released their results, ‘well above’ after ‘well above’ saw it race to around £24 a share from that low of £4.

Then they stuttered, releasing an ‘inline’ statement on 1/12/17 saying profit before tax (PBT) would be £38m. The shares pulled back slightly and I was familiar enough with the share now to know that they would probably beat that estimate, and £38m for half a year was what they made in the whole year the year before.

I bought at under £20, the shares raced off again until they released their results of £38.8m for half year, the shares pulled back again (did the market expect more?) and I added again twice on ‘slightly ahead’ updates. I believe that market thought they were running out of steam, but I didn't.

Obviously the stage 1 breakout discussed earlier is only an indication of price movement. Any purchase of shares for a longer term investment should be based on company fundamentals and metrics, and GAW had these in droves, good margins, growing sales and good return on capital, it was these metrics that drew me to the share.

We then had an ‘in line’ trading update as opposed to the normal 'ahead'. This coincided with the price hitting the top of an upward channel (if you draw a line through the tops of the peaks on the charts you will see the channel) and I sold 75% of my holding. The price then declined when they released one of their bizarrely worded statements stating ‘Profits were similar’ but there were ‘Uncertain trading periods’

The share price dropped 25% in short order back to £30 and I slapped myself on the back having banked a large profit. GAW had run its course, they were losing momentum, I had missed the initial break but otherwise had performed a text book trade, something I didn’t think I would be able to do being so inexperienced.

I kept 25% of my holding, just in case I was wrong.

The chart looked like a classic ‘stage 3’ where a share price will begin to break down after a strong run up. The price was swinging quite wildly and would more than likely move to a ‘stage 4’ where it declines sharply or back to a ‘stage 1’ where it moves sideways and builds another base. There was even an update where they just missed their expected profits.

I then added a little on another positive update and quickly sold these as the issued an in-line statement and the shares fell back.

After this I switched off from GAW a little, still holding 25% of my initial purchase and keeping an eye on their trading updates to make sure nothing was going drastically wrong. The company began again on their march forward with positive updates and the share price had a slingshot with an ‘ahead of expectations, Profit Before Tax £80m’ update followed quickly by a ‘Growth across all channels, profit before tax +£80m’ which catapulted the share price through £40.

This break of £40, the point where I earlier sold, accompanied again by large volume of trading and marked on the above chart with the last yellow circle is another buy point, and would have been a great time for new buyers to take a position. Sure, you could have bought at £28 a few weeks earlier, but there was a lot more risk then, a couple of ‘poor’ updates (by GAW standards) and the price drifting sideways. This update, the share price rise and the volume involved was another great indicator, and barring the ‘Covid’ dip this was the last time GAW share price saw £40 (to date). I didn't take advantage.

So, I’ve looked at what I missed in the first instance and what I got right and wrong in my buying, but this is all easy looking backwards. Back in 2016 I didn’t really know about breakouts and stage analysis, and even when I bought I was using more fundamental analysis of the company than technical analysis.

But, I have bought again recently and perhaps was fueled by my experiences with the company and my belief in their long term prospects in isolation rather than combining this with looking at what the chart is telling me. In short I may have made a mistake adding to GAW, at least in the short term!

Recent Times

 

The above chart shows more recent price movement for GAW shares. Things were progressing at pace and they were beating forecasts. Expected profit before tax (half year) of £55m became £58.6m and then Covid 19 hit. I’m not going to go into how I acted in dealing with my shares during this time as that is a whole other story! But you can see from the chart that GAW lost half its value in a couple of weeks, following the wider market.

At this point I was waiting for an earlier gap up on the chart to be filled by the downward movement in the share price. If this gap had of filled I would have bought, but it didn’t fill, and I didn’t buy. Hard to say this was a mistake as I bought other things that did well, but if there is a lesson not to always look at technical analysis then this is it. This was an opportunity to buy a top quality company at a bargain price.

The market settled and began to look for companies that were not going to be affected by Covid 19. GAW was one of these companies, in fact it seemed to be benefitting from it.

Detailed updates from Covid and forecasts with estimates of sales and profits were the order of the day for GAW's news releases now, and these estimates were again being beaten time after time.

After what I considered to be a fantastic update in November 2020 I decided I wanted to buy some more. It was a Friday update (I will look at the timing of their updates later) and gave me the weekend to run some numbers and get up to speed. This weekend happened to coincide with some Covid lockdown related news (I can’t remember what it was exactly) but when the markets opened on Monday there was what was widely considered to be a rotation from ‘Covid beneficiary’ shares into more value offerings.

I had expected the shares to open up following the update and they began losing value, I bought during the next few days. Another good update shot the shares back up before their half year results showing profit before tax on £91.6m saw the shares retreat again.

There was an opportunity for the shares to gain back when they issued their latest trading update on 17/3/20 but this saw GAW management revert back to their old (seemingly) pre pandemic update style issuing an ‘in line with expectations’ at half past three on a Wednesday afternoon. The market participants did not seem impressed. So before I look at what we should read from this RNS, if anything, I will look at my recent buys and how they may have been mistimed.

 A Mistake?

My average cost of buying these recent shares is around £96 per share, and if you cast your mind back I was hesitant to first buy GAW at under £30. The most I paid was around £106 and the least was around £93, as I write the share price is £94, so I’m losing money.

So, what were my mistakes?

First, I bought the first lot of shares as they were falling in price, they continued to fall. I bought more as they started rising which brought my average down, but my first buy should have been as they were rising.

Second, and largest mistake on this from a trading basis, the shares failed to break through their recent high at around £117. They hit this level and started to retrace quite sharply on reasonable volume of trades, which I believe to be certain funds selling down as they reach the limits they can hold in a share. This is an obvious ‘double top’ on the chart. When they failed at this level I should have sold at least some of the shares and looked to buy them back when they settled.

Third, I presumed my knowledge of GAW and their RNS reporting style would trump the market’s reaction to their latest update. It didn’t, I was trying to second guess the market and should have sold some, but probably not all, of my shares at the time of the afternoon news release, the shares dropped from around £102 to £92 on this release.

All in all if I has followed these steps I would have bought at an average price of around £94, sold some at around £112-£115 and sold some more at around £102. If I wanted I could now buy these shares back at £94.

But, again, some hindsight bias here, and lets not forget if I would have held my original purchase and not sold at £40 then I would be in a much better position, and moves like this could look like a slight blip in years to come.

So, I didn’t trade this recent movement, I bought the shares on a belief that the market is misunderstanding and underestimating the prospects for GAW’s future growth, just like it has done in the past. And I think there could be a lot of people who own GAW shares now might not have held them in the past, they might have bought them at £40 early last year and been treated to 7am news releases with lots of words and numbers whereas I think I know better. But do I?

Jive Talking

So how do GAW communicate with the stock market?

Stock market news is generally released at 7am in the morning so people can read it and plan what to do and its generally released on Monday – Thursday, because who likes thinking too much on a Friday.

The general consensus is that if news is released after 7am then its bad news, its released then because some market participants might not be paying attention. The same goes for Fridays, and it its 2:30 on a Friday afternoon then it’s not going to be great news.

GAW’s most recent RNS was released at 3:21 on a Wednesday afternoon. It stated trading was ‘in-line’, was brief and contained no indications of financials. The last 7 RNS updates released within the last year all contained numbers and generally a bit more detail (some very detailed during the start of the first lockdown), 6 of them were released at 7am and the one they threw in at 2pm on a Friday (!!!) contained great estimates.

However I’ve seen RNS’s from GAW like this before and I’ve seen the share price and company performance go from strength to strength, so do I know something that others have missed, or have I just convinced myself of this? Did GAW get a bit more serious during the lockdowns and are they more confident now and beginning to play with the market a little bit?

I decided to look back through their statements and see how, or indeed if, they affect the share price.

The statement on 17/3/21 stated

‘The Company also announces that trading in the three months to the end of February 2021 has been in line with expectations, notwithstanding the majority of our UK and European retail stores were subject to Covid-19 closures and distribution disruption during the period’

Shares dropped from £102.50 to as low as £92.50.

But what does it tell us? ‘In line with expectations’, who’s expectations? Broker forecasts for the full year still look low despite being upgraded, in fact I think the board deliberately mess with their brokers to consistently beat forecasts. But it doesn’t state broker forecasts, maybe it’s the board forecasts? But we don’t know what their expectations actually are as we’ve just ruled out that they will match the broker forecasts.

So all we can say is that this RNS does not tell us any numbers, where as other have, and it was an afternoon release.

Now, out of 23 trading updates issued since mid-2016 9 have been issued intra-day, that’s over a third! In fact there was a period during 2017 where you would be lucky to find a 7am trading update and profits have marched on.

There was no financial update. Of the 23 updates since 2016 16 have not contained any numbers, that’s over two thirds. Admittedly the numbers have been more frequent recently but back in 2017-18 it was very rare.

It was ‘In line’. Of the 23 updates since mid-2016 7 have been ‘in line’, that’s just under a third.

None of these items in the trading update is sufficiently divergent from GAW’s history in updating the market, so there should be nothing to suggest that things are about to self-destruct.

GAW’s share price has stuttered in the past, and indeed I have been a beneficiary of this, but have these pullbacks been related to the way GAW has communicated?

Going back to 2017 there were pullbacks from circa £23.50 to £18.50 (-21% Nov ’17), £28 to £20.50 (-26% Jan ’18), £40.50 to £28 (-30% Oct ’18) and £51 to £42 (-17% Jun ’19). The current pullback is from highs of £118 to £91.5 (-22%), In fact if you look at the chart pattern in Oct 2018 it looks very similar to now.

In more detail – In November 2017 GAW issued a very brief trading statement, positive but with no numbers. This was followed by the ‘in line’ half year update on 1/12/17 which had financials and seemed to rally the shares.

The fall in Jan 2018 began with a very marked down day on 9/1/18 coinciding with the half year results. I can find nothing sinister in the results, perhaps it was the fact that they only beat their in line expectations by £800k or people selling the news? A ‘slightly above expectations’ update in February seems to halt the slide.

The most severe 30% pull back in October 2018 is around where I sold my tranche of shares, so there must have been something in it. Was there? Or was I just part of the crowd who thought they had run out of steam?

There was an in line statement on 19/9/18, the shares rose but pulled back sharply around 24/9/18 on no news, it just seems that stalling momentum started the fall, and more than likely caused me to sell at the top of that upper trend line discussed earlier. We then had another inline statement coupled with one of GAW’s trademark ‘However the board remains aware that there are some uncertainties in the trading periods ahead’ statements on 18/10/18. This did little to settle the market and led to a very slight profit miss in early 2019. The shares were rallied and catapulted onward by a stellar trading update in April 2019.

The June 2019 pullback seems again to be a ‘sell the news’ event.

So looking at the above I would say we could summarise the following.

There is no correlation between the propensity of GAW to release intra-day, brief or financially lacking RNS’s to their long term growth prospects and we should no read too much into this. They also have a history of releasing in line statements that are then beaten.

However. This current RNS release and chart pattern looks very similar to late 2018 where there was a very slight miss on half year numbers. GAW then went on from strength to strength.

What a mistake to make

So, have I made a mistake with my buys, should I sell and if I didn’t hold should I buy now?

I like to think I know the company well and while I think it has benefitted from lockdown I certainly don’t think it will suffer when it ends, there are lots of long term growth catalysis going forward. I also know the danger of selling my shares too early.

However I may have made a mistake timing my recent buys. The market seems to be waiting to see the direction of travel but I’m happy to hold at the minute unless the share price breaks significantly to the downside, which I don’t think it will do without a further catalyst.

So would I buy now? The short answer is no, I would certainly wait for the next results and update, this, in my opinion will give a good indicator as to where the company is going next. It is not on a demanding forward earnings multiple for the growth prospects and the financial metrics are still excellent but there may be some short term pressure before the next move. From a technical point of view look for a move back towards that £117-£120 then a breakthrough of the recent high, preferably with good volume to back it up and it could be a great entry point similar to 2018’s break of £40 and GAW could be off the races again continuing its ‘stage 2’ upwards trend. But this could just as easily be the ‘stage 3’ choppiness before a ‘stage 4’ breakdown of the share price or a stagnating ‘stage 1’ sideways movement.

So if you are interested in Games Workshop it might be time to get researching it and familiarise yourself with not only the ‘plastic soldiers’ they sell but also the potential that the company has to grow in other areas and its history in capital allocation. This way you will be able to make an informed decision whether to take a position when the time is right for you.

Cut to the chase

If you got bored by the waffle and decided to skip to the end to see if there was a summary, then good news, here it is.

You can find potentially good shares to buy by using your eyes and ears, you dont have to be a financial genius.

Technical analysis of shares (in this case stage analysis) can identify something happening with a share and indicate good points to buy.

Strong fundamentals and growth will drive a share, this can keep gaining momentum (the fly wheel effect)

If you think you have missed the boat there may be more boarding points later along the line to either jump on or add.

As you can see I mix my styles to investment, my recent buys were on perceived knowledge rather than technical analysis, but my review of this trade has showed that stage analysis wouldn't have stopped me buying but might have helped me time my entries.

To learn more about stage analysis there are some great books by William O’Neill, Mark Minervini, Stan Weinstein and John Boik. Michael Taylor who writes for Investors Chronical is a proponent of this method of technical analysis and Phil Oakley of Investors Chronicle has written some great articles on the fundamentals of Games Workshop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shadows of Brimstone

After our first gaming session of Shadows of Brimstone, a Weird Wild West dungeon crawler from Flying Frog Games, I decided to write a little narrative.

Ignore the stats at the beginning, I'm just using this to keep track of XP etc, and read on to follow the adventurers as they begin their descent..

Shadows of Brimstone Campaign

Scott – Jim ‘Shady’ Mathers – US Marshall – 360 XP - , $50, 6 DS

Personal Item - Silver Dice

Starting Skill – Hardened Resolve

Gear

Artifacts

Mark – The Man in Black - Gunslinger – 310XP, $25, 4DS

Personal Item – Hand Mirror

Starting Skill – Quickdraw

Gear - Axe

Artefacts -

Pete – Amber Lafayette - Saloon Girl – 270XP, $75, 5DS

Personal Item – Shackles

Starting Skill – Acrobatic Dodge

Gear -

Artefacts -

Mike – Father Padraig O’Shaughnessey - Preacher – 370XP, $100, 9DS

Personal Item – Concealed Flask

Starting Skill – Missionary

Gear -

Artefacts -

Becs – Anna O’Shaughnessey - Rancher – 335XP, $175, 6DS

Personal Item – Worn Eye Patch

Starting Skill – Farmstead Defender

Gear -

Artefacts -

Wrighty – ‘The Sherriff’ - Law Man – 425XP, $100, 3DS

Personal Item – Personal Journal

Starting Skill – Frontier Justice

Gear – Pistol, Hunting Knife

Artefacts -

Duane – Benito ‘The Bomb’ Nachos - Bandito – 450XP, $100, 6DS

Personal Item – Ace of Spades

Starting Skill – Explosives Expert

Gear –

Artefacts – Book of the Mad King

Journal Entry – 20-5

They say every story needs to be told. But this one really needs to be told. Hence I keep this journal. Just in case.

Our adventures started in the saloon, don’t they all? A likely band. We were all drawn to Lestina, a small town a good few miles from where Brimstone once stood. All drawn for our own purposes but really we all knew we were drawn by the DarkStone. We’d all heard the stories, fortunes to be made from the stuff, and fortune favors the brave. Sure we’d all heard the stories of what it brings too. Living dead, daemons, and holes to other worlds. But here we were anyway.

A less likely bunch of fortune seekers you would never find.

The Man in Black, a fearsome gunslinger that built his reputation in Arizona and New Mexico, I’m sure you’ve heard the stories and yes, it’s true. A vain bastard that carries a mirror with him wherever he goes. He says it’s for luck! Well I don’t know about that but he’s so quick he even seems to have time to check his hair before drawing, and still guns the other man down.

Benito Nachos. ‘Benni the Bomb’ the group likes to call him. A crazy son bitch Mexican. He thinks that every problem can be solved with dynamite, and the crazy bastard always seems to pull a stick of it from somewhere! Filthy greaser carries a ‘lucky ace’ with him, lucky for him, not for the poor saps that are around him when he blows.  And the singin, man, the singin! I swear to god that I gonna gun the son bitch down someday if he don’t stop to goddam tuneless greaser singin.

And talkin of God, the next member of our unlikely posse claims to represent him. Father Padraig O’Shaughnessey. A less likely preacher you wouldn’t find anywhere. You ask me he more likely worships the drink, I aint ever seen him without the goddam hip flask he carries. More likely he’s too drunk to read the sermons from the book he carries, but some say they seen him spread fire from the skies. Well I aint sure bout that but with what we’re searchin for a preacher might come in handy.

And then there’s his daughter Anna. Bright as a button. Owns a ranch up towards Sedona. She’s never seen without her huntin rifle and man can she shoot! Wears an old tattered eyepatch to help with her aim. More likely here to look after her old man than to find the DarkStone, but that Stone will more than likely buy her a pretty head of cattle when she’s done here. Wouldn’t surprise me if she don’t end up the biggest rancher in the state, if we live to tell these tales.

The next member of our band is a real do gooder, least that’s what he’ll have you think. Jim Mathers, a fancy dressed US Marshall from out East somewhere. But I heard the tales ‘bout him. Flashes his badge like he’s the almighty himself, but I know ‘bout those Silver Dice he carries, and how he got em. Driven out from the East is the real story, Jim ‘Shady’ Mathers they called him out there. A crooked lawman with a flashy smile and a gambling problem. Sure he’s here for the stone alright, and he’ll get his share so long as he remembers who the real law in these parts.

The girl he has in tow is Amber Lafayette. Some hussy from a saloon Mathers picked up along the way to Brimstone Country no doubt. She dresses real fine, all comfortin to the men in our group. But she’s quick as a snake an always finds somewhere to hide that hold out pistol she carries. Damn girl carries round a pair of shackles with her, not sure if it’s to tie up the ‘bad guys’ for Jim or to tie up the boys. She probly charges extra for that!

And me, well people call me ‘The Sherriff’. That’s all you need to know for now. This journals for our stories if we aint round to tell em ourselves.

Journal Entry – 26-5

We been kickin round this town for best part of a week now when we got wind of our first big score.

We was in the saloon, Jim takin the locals at Liars Dice and Benni eatin matches or some shit when this crazy old man came over to Amber and started tellin her a tale. A tale of an old DarkStone mine up in the hills. Anna’s been up in them hills a few days before with her old man, looking to snag us some mustangs, and she took no time in working out the missing details. The mine was near Cake’s Cave, bout a days ride North West of town.

Tomorrow we’re saddling up them mustangs and headin out.

Journal Entry 27-5

2 days it took us to get up to the mine. Damn alcoholic preacher went and traded his mustang for a pack mule. Said the horse was the creature of the devil. Still the mule should come in handy for carryin all that stone back to town. We’re holing up outside the mine for the night. Somethin bout it don’t seem quite right and we’re all agreed we aint goin down there in the night. Maybe the stories are right an there are creatures from other worlds down there.

Journal Entry 29-5

I’m still writin, so that means I’m stiil ‘live. The rest are too, but let me tell ya Jim aint lookin too clever. Gone near lost his mind.

Let me tell ya how it went down.

The mornin broke yesterday and The Man in Black was into the mine like a shot. Crazy son bitch he is I tell ya. We managed to scrounge one lantern between us an Amber was carryin it. The mine was wrong I tell ya, no one wanted to get too far away from that light, which seemed to suit Amber just fine.

Black was racin ahead an just inside the entrance we found a crazy old prospector. What the hell he was doin here I couldn’t tell ya. Well he seemed a friendly sort at first, even offered us some healing herbs, but just as we were headin on our way I saw something weren’t right. God damn it if he didn’t collapse down in front of Black and start shakin like the preacher does when he aint had his whisky. You wouldn’t believe what happened next, neither would I if there weren’t to others round to bear witness. God damn old man’s chest snapped open and 8ft tentacles bust from it! Well Black took one down straight way with his pistol, He’s as fast as people say, if not faster. I nailed the other one while Jim fired what he says was a ‘warnin shot’ with his shotgun into the roof of the cave. Goddam warnin shot! Well that tentacle came straight for him, whacked him right in the kisser. Anna tried to take it out but that girl can’t shoot for shit. Black took it down. Shook us all up a bit I tell ya. Amber stayed round with Jim to ‘comfort him’, the Preacher was there too tryin to read some bullshit from his book. Benni, Black and I pressed on ahead.

As we went deeper into the mine that strange feeling grew stronger. Sort of hard to say what it was, like something evil coming from deep in the mine. Trying to get out. Maybe it was guarding the DarkStone?

The next room we came to was worse. As we entered there was something scuttling in the darkness. Some big red armoured things with mean lookin claws. Slashers we called em, and hangin from the ceiling half a dozen HellBats, worm like things but with wings. We’d heard stories ‘bout these creatures before. Things had laid siege to Fort Landy for a week people say, took the army all the bullets they has to get rid of em.  Well these things were fast, but Black was faster, took one of em out before it even looked up. The others swarmed round us. Anna opened up with her rifle at one and Benni took another out. I did for a fourth and Jim blasted that shotgun of his at one of the slashers. Tough bastards they were, the shot just bounced off its crab like hide. The Preacher  was still tryin to read from his blasted book, swear that man needs glasses, and it fell to the rest of us to take out the beasts. Black hit one right between the eyes, droppin it in one shot and I took out the other.

Don’t know what happened next but Black went off lookin for some loot. Not sure what he found but when he came back he wasn’t sayin nothin, and looked white as a ghost. There’s something bad down here for sure and I got the feeling we gotta stop it before it gets out. Good job Benni got that satchel of dynamite.

Still, after rootin round we found signs of the DarkStone we were searcin for and continued down into the mine.

As the shafts weaved round we came to an openin with some of the stone in the walls. Benni rushed in and started prising it right out the walls. But I think something must have heard us! From the shadows more of the Slasher things appeared, HellBats dropped from the roof and dead miners started getting up from the pile of bodies in the corner. The HellBats flew straight towards Black but Anna was there with her rifle. Shootin like a deamon she took out what must of been 5 of those suckers while Amber finished the other one off with her little hold out Pistol. Jim took the head off one them Slashers with his shotgun and I took care of the other. Benni had lost it. He started reachin into his satchel and tossin dynamite at them dead things like no tomorrow, he blew the shit outa them! Crazy son bitch. But I tell ya he was pretty banged up. The Preacher must have found the right page in his book ‘cos he healed him up real nice.

This weren’t the stash we were looking for so we continued down into the darkness, that old lantern that lil ol Amber was carrying seemed to the only thing holdin the evil at bay. The next passage we came to was flooded waist deep in water. More dean men came for us from the depths but they were struggling to get through. It was like shooting fish in a barrel and Benni started launcin that dynamite again, where the hell does her get it all from? And the Preacher, well he raised that fire people talked about, went and burned up them piles of bones real good.

When we reached the bottom of the mine the darkness seemed real strong, we knew we had to be quick before it got out from this cursed place, but this was bad, real bad. More dead men lined then room and HellBats swooped from the stalactites but there was something else, something big! Harbinger of Doom the Preacher called it, thing must have stool 15 feet tall with wings spannin twice that. Well, as I said, I’m the law round here and the folks find it quite inspiring when I show em my badge. Jim did the same shoutin ‘F.B.I.’! He’s a strange one he is, not sure where out East he’s from but we sure don’t talk like that round here. Well I tell ya the posse went crazy, shootin like they were possessed by daemons themselves. Black laid into that ting with his deadeye shots and Anna got that huntin rifle singin a sweet song as she finished it off. But there was something unnatural to it, started getting in our minds. Amber and the Preacher finished off the HellBats and Benni blew the shit out of them dead folks with his dynamite, but we almost had to drag Jim and Benni out of that room. Jibbering like idiots about hidden worlds, frozen rolling plains and deadly swamps they were, Still we got our stash.

And here we are, Benni clutchin this strange book he found deep down in the mines, Father Padraig stashing a haul of DarkStone so big it barely fits in his bag, good job he brought that pack mule. He’s lookin mighty strange the Preacher, as if the stone is changing him in some way.

Well we’re gonna hole up here for the night before we head back to town, hopefully it’ll be a quiet journey home.

Malifaux Masters Runners and Riders

Well the Malifaux Masters is upon us and while the real prize is qualifying (and I'm not saying that because I'm pretty sure to go out of it on day 1!) the second best prize is winning it.

So, having crunched some stats I've decided to put together a little preview of the players and how well might do....

please note: all photos are stolen from various places and used without permission!

Pool 1

Joel Henry – Tournaments - 16, Wins - 4, Podiums - 4, Av Placing - 5.2/24.7, % of Wins - 25%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 50%, preferred faction – Neverborn (7)

Joel has been top of the rankings (or thereabouts) for what seems like forever! The Mr consistent of the Malifaux scene had never failed to podium at an event before 2015 but is hampered (?) by playing gremlins (all for charity) and from what he says he will be out on day 1 and looking forward to using Neverborn on the day 2 side event. Personally if I were him I wouldn't bother packing the Neverborn as it will be Gremlins for day 2 as he sails through the group.

James Doxey  – Tournaments - 14, Wins - 1, Podiums - 4, Av Placing - 5.8/26.4, % of Wins - 7%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 36%, preferred faction – Arcanists (14)

James has been on the scene for a long time and being a forum mod he is very knowledgeable about the game. I’m surprised he only has 1 win in 2014 and his form has tailed off a little toward the end of the year which could be because he secured qualification early, but he certainly knows his Arcanists. Should qualify from the group if he puts his mind to it!

 

Luke Cocksedge - Tournaments - 9, Wins - 1, Podiums - 3, Av Placing – 12.7/29, % of Wins - 11%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 44%, preferred faction – Outcasts (9)

An outstanding player with Leviticus in 1.5 he has carried his master over into M2E and despite just scraping into the Masters (not helped by an abysmal GT result) he is still a formidable opponent on his day. I have never had the pleasure of playing him but have been on the table next door a couple of times and he certainly knows what he’s up to. Will need to be on form to get to day 2 but it’s certainly possible if he’s using Levi.

Connor Barker - Tournaments - 17, Wins - 3, Podiums - 1, Av Placing - 9/23.8, % of Wins - 18%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 24%, preferred faction – Gremlins (11)

Like Luke Connor is another player who qualified due to drop outs. Again I have never played him but looking at his results he has been slowly improving throughout the year as he switched to, and got to grips with, Gremlins! Anything is possible but unless he distracts his opponents by wearing his GT costume I cant see him qualifying from the group (sorry Connor, but there are some good players here).

Pool 2

Mark Elwood - Tournaments - 14, Wins - 4, Podiums - 3, Av Placing – 4.8/27.3, % of Wins - 29%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 50%, preferred faction – Neverborn (14)

Mark is another tournament regular whose path I have never crossed while playing. He says he makes too many mistakes in games but he has won almost a third of the events he has been to this year and podiumed at half so I dread to think how good he would be if he didn’t make mistakes! Has a reputation for having a meticulous playstyle which could make him the ‘Ice Man’ of Malifaux. The stats say he should qualify but this is a tough, tough group (and I’m not saying that to get my excuses in early!)

John Wharton - Tournaments - 8, Wins - 1, Podiums - 4, Av Placing – 4.5/29, % of Wins - 13%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 63%, preferred faction – Outcasts (7)

Yet another opponent I haven’t faced John is a part of the excellent North East Malifaux scene and his ranking position is well deserved. Apparently a very aggressive Vics player I think he could easily top this group and just as easily finish bottom, that’s the problem with being an aggressive player. He has podiumed at over half the events he has attended this year so he could cause some surprises, unless he plays Greg on day 2. (sorry about the photo John, its all I could find - you must be camera shy!)

Martin Wodehouse - Tournaments - 6, Wins - 0, Podiums - 2, Av Placing - 5.7/33, % of Wins - 0%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 33%, preferred faction – Arcanists (6)

Along with myself Martin is the only player to have qualified from 6 events (which is obviously a fantastic achievement, cos I’m the only other person to have done it!). Colette is his master of choice at the minute and he has beaten me with her at the last 2 events we have attended, including a smashing at the GT. Martin seems to have trouble maintaining his consistency for an entire event and usually falls at the last fence, but this is the first fence and he is certainly capable of qualifying from the group

Scott Porter - Tournaments - 6, Wins - 1, Podiums - 1, Av Placing – 8.6/33.5, % of Wins - 17%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 33%, preferred faction – Ressers (4)

I just managed to qualify thanks to a 4^th place at the final event of the year despite a strong start to the year. Lack of playing time hampers my chances (I wont have played and personally I don’t think I have a chance in this group. In truth I’m happy just to have made it to the event and look forward to some good games on day 1 and then a change of master for the side event on day 2.

Pool 3

Ben Crowe - Tournaments - 11, Wins - 4, Podiums - 4, Av Placing – 2.6/25.5, % of Wins - 36%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 73%, preferred faction – Outcasts (4)

The man on form. Ben has podiumed at an incredible 73% of the events he has attended and he has won or finished second at the last 6 events he has attended including winning the GT. Since starting to use Levi he seems almost unbeatable and despite the quality of the opposition he should qualify for day 2 with ease and stands a good chance of going all the way.

Maria Wieland - Tournaments - 12, Wins - 1, Podiums - 3, Av Placing - 8/27.8, % of Wins - 8%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 33%, preferred faction – Outcasts (12)

Maria is a quality player but a little inconsistent. She qualified for the Masters last year and on her day stands a chance against anyone. A fan of Relic Hammers by all accounts she has the ability to cause an upset but with the competition in this group I don’t think she’ll be there for day 2.

Rob Smith - Tournaments - 8, Wins - 2, Podiums - 2, Av Placing - 5/30.8, % of Wins - 25%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 50%, preferred faction – Gremlins (5)

The thing with Rob is you are never sure if he is going to be playing Wong or Colette (filth all round) or if he plays better while hung over or sober. What is for certain is that he is a solid player who’s 5^th in the rankings from 8 events, quite an achievement. I tip him to qualify from the group and he’s also my dark horse to win the Masters depending on if he’s drunk, or sober, or whatever!

Joe Wood  - Tournaments - 8, Wins - 1, Podiums - 2, Av Placing - 5.5/27.5, % of Wins - 13%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 38%, preferred faction – Guild (8)

Another player I haven’t played Joe has a reputation as a fearsome Sonnia Player. A member of the Southern scene Joe looks to have been consistent throughout the year but might struggle against the opponents in this group.

Pool 4

Ant Hoult Tournaments - 13, Wins - 4, Podiums - 1, Av Placing - 5.4/29, % of Wins - 31%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 38%, preferred faction – Ressers (8)

Ant is the top Resser player and is a stoic player who doesn’t make many mistakes or give any quarter on the table. His preferred Resser master is Nico but I know he has dabbled with arcanists recently. Another player who secured qualification early and who’s form has dropped a little in recent months. Despite having a reputation for being a little dour Ant is a really nice guy who will be stiff competition in this group but might struggle to qualify depending on Blu-Tac’s form and if he can re-discover his early season form.

Greg Piskosz - Tournaments - 18, Wins - 3, Podiums - 8, Av Placing – 3.9/25.2, % of Wins - 17%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 61%, preferred faction – Neverborn (10)

The Chosen One, Greg was runner up at last years Masters and a fearsome player who rarely seems to make mistakes as his 3 wins and a massive 8 podiums attest to. I have only played him once at MCC in a friendly game and he certainly knows how to pick a crew and use it! He should breeze the group in my opinion and will be in the mix to win the whole thing

Graham Bursnell - Tournaments - 21, Wins - 2, Podiums - 1, Av Placing – 8.9/26, % of Wins - 10%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 14%, preferred faction – Arcanists (16)

The statistics would imply that Blu-Tac is a weaker player, a massive 21 events this year, only 2 wins and an average finish of 8.9. This is where statistics lie. On his day I believe Graham is capable of beating any player on the scene and he has a great understanding of Raspy. I tip him to qualify with Greg from the group.

David Golden - Tournaments - 11, Wins - 1, Podiums - 3, Av Placing – 7.1/20.5, % of Wins - 9%, % podium finishes (inc wins) – 36%, preferred faction – Guild (8)

David is a player that I have never met and know nothing about! The stats would say that he’s a solid if unspectacular player and a little inconsistent. On this basis he should struggle to qualify from the group but on the day who knows!

So there you go, and heres some nice graphs and stuff